EFL Cup final tale of the tape: Man Utd have the edge over Southampton

EFL Cup final tale of the tape: Man Utd have the edge over Southampton

FEBRUARY 24, 2017 6:49:32 AM PST

By John Brewin

The last time Manchester United faced Southampton in a Wembley showpiece was 1976's FA Cup final, a sun-drenched May afternoon won by a Bobby Stokes goal that United fans of a certain age swear to this day was offside. That was Southampton's last (and indeed only) major trophy and it was won as a second division club. United, for their part, had been in that division the previous season, a club in the doldrums after their glories in the 1950s and 1960s.

United's current version of being in the doldrums is having not won the Premier League since 2013. Winning last season's FA Cup under Louis van Gaal was not enough to save his job, but with Jose Mourinho's team back in sixth, it will be cup competitions that sate the club's slaking thirst for silverware; the EFL Cup could yet be part of a trophy treble with the Europa League and a defence of the FA Cup.

Goalkeeper

This summer will mark six years for David de Gea at United, but Sunday will be only his second final for the club. Against Crystal Palace in May's FA Cup final, the Spaniard made a vital save from Yannick Bolasie before beaten at the near post by Jason Puncheon. With United defending far better than they did under Van Gaal and David Moyes, De Gea is no longer the headline-stealer of previous years. Instead, he has become their solid citizen.

Fraser Forster is England's second-choice goalkeeper these days, with Stoke's Jack Butland on the sidelines, and is thus used to playing at Wembley. He is capable of making truly spectacular saves though does throw in the odd mistake. With the likes of Liverpool and Manchester City seeking goalkeeping talent, he may the among the next Saints players to be sold, although he's perhaps not the best with the ball at his feet.

Edge: Man United

Defence

The partnership of Phil Jones and Marcos Rojo that helped pull United from their October slump has been broken up by the Englishman's injury. Instead, Chris Smalling and Eric Bailly have been trusted of late. Bailly's propensity for rash tackling has recently come to the fore, which may be something that Southampton seek to exploit with direct running. At full-back, Daley Blind seems likely to be fielded on the left, if Rojo is not played there, while Antonio Valencia has been a highly dependable performer on the right.

How keenly might Southampton feel the loss of Virgil van Dijk ? The Dutch central defender, probably the best in the Premier League this season until his ankle injury in January, will be sat in the stands as Jack Stephens , a youth product, takes his chance alongside Maya Yoshida. At full-back, Southampton have two high-grade performers in Cedric Soares and Ryan Bertrand .

Edge: Even

Midfield

Michael Carrick's calf injury at Saint-Etienne has reduced Mourinho's options and will probably lead him to pair Ander Herrera and Paul Pogba in the centre. Carrick might have offered a greater security and allowed the Spaniard and the Frenchman to indulge their attacking instincts, although they may now have to be reined in. Sitting deep does not suit Pogba; it also reduces his opportunities to link with Zlatan Ibrahimovic. Will this be the day when Pogba comes through for United on a grand occasion? In some critical games -- losing 2-1 Manchester City in September, drawing 1-1 with Liverpool in January and in losing 4-0 at Chelsea in October -- Pogba was far too excitable and arguably cost his team.

Oriol Romeu is Southampton's anchor in midfield, a player finally meeting his potential after failing to make the grade at Chelsea. His metronomic style complements James Ward-Prowse and Steven Davis, two underrated domestic performers who work hard but also possess significant creative gifts. Ward-Prowse, a specialist at dead-ball deliveries, is dangerous at free-kicks, while club captain Davis is a canny operator, capable of popping up with vital goals. Saints' midfield is not be underestimated, and Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg , formerly of Bayern Munich, is another option.

Edge: Man United

Attack

Two things are certain about United's team on Sunday. First, Wayne Rooney will not start; he may be lucky to be on the bench. And secondly, Ibrahimovic will be playing up front for United, a seemingly immovable but highly effective object as centre-forward. Who plays alongside him is far less easy to discern. Henrikh Mkhitaryan 's hamstring injury leaves a berth in attacking midfield, which may well be filled by Juan Mata. And which of Anthony Martial and Marcus Rashford will start? Another certainty is Mourinho's wealth of options.

Southampton may well have pulled off the deal of the January transfer window in signing Manolo Gabbiadini from Napoli for £14.6 million. The Italian scored three goals in his first two matches for Southampton to fill in for the loss of Charlie Austin to a long-term injury. Backing him up, perhaps from the bench, will be Shane Long, the speedy scorer of the breakaway winner that finished Liverpool in the semifinal second leg at Anfield. Joining them in attack will be Nathan Redmond , a threat down the flanks and through the centre, and the wily skills of Dusan Tadic.

Edge: Man United

Manager

Mourinho is seeking the same route to success he took at Chelsea: winning the League Cup to prelude Premier League titles, as he did in 2006 then again in 2015. Back then, he won titles in the same season, which is likely beyond United's capabilities for this season. Instead, winning at Wembley can give his players "the taste of champagne," to use a phrase from Brian Clough, four-time winner of the League Cup with Nottingham Forest, a record that Mourinho will seek to emulate. In a first season in which United have been flat-lining in sixth place since November, collecting a trophy would be a fillip to the club's confidence in Mourinho.

Claude Puel may have led Saints to their first major final since losing the 2003 FA Cup final 1-0 to Arsenal in 2003, but he's not exactly a unifying figure among Southampton fans. The soft-spoken Frenchman has suffered by comparison to predecessors Ronaldo Koeman and Mauricio Pochettino, with Southampton in 11th place and not challenging for the Europa League place they've achieved in each of the past two seasons. It's entirely possible that Puel masterminds victory at Wembley here and is not at the club come the start of next season, something in the style of Claudio Ranieri's downfall.

Edge: Man United

Intangibles

The past five finals have gone to the prematch favourites since Birmingham City shocked Arsenal in 2011. Southampton's victory would not be as surprising, but it could cast considerable doubt over the Mourinho regime, which has been more promise than delivery so far. That said, Mourinho has only lost one final in his career, in 2013 when Atletico won the Copa del Rey at the expense of Real Madrid. This will be his 13th major final. Puel meanwhile, has reached just one final in his career, when losing the French Coupe de la Ligue to Lyon when he was Monaco manager.

Perhaps discipline will be a factor. Referee Andre Marriner has shown six red cards in his 26 matches this season, the second-most among English professional referees.

Score prediction: Manchester United 2-1 Southampton, with Ibrahimovic on the score sheet.

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